There may be continued pushback in the ANC about the future stability of the government of national unity (GNU), but minor parties in the coalition government say they are happy with the idea of working with Paul Mashatile after President Cyril Ramaphosa’s term ends.
The leaders of the United Democratic Movement (UDM), Rise Mzansi, Al Jama-ah and the Good party have expressed confidence in Mashatile’s ability to steer the coalition, even as scepticism mounts regarding the future stability of the GNU.
The smaller parties told the Mail & Guardian that they are well aware of the challenges facing the 10-party coalition, but highlighted Mashatile’s experience in navigating South Africa’s complex political landscape.
The deputy president is chairperson of the cabinet technical committee – or clearing house – established to process policy disputes among coalition partners.
The smaller parties said his role as deputy president of the country and the ANC has seen him involved in crucial negotiations, making him a suitable candidate to ensure government continuity and cohesion.
Despite ongoing concerns about the longevity of the coalition, particularly after Ramaphosa’s exit, the minority party leaders remain optimistic.
They believe Mashatile has the political acumen and experience necessary to maintain the fragile alliance that currently governs the country.
They underscored the importance of “collaboration and open dialogue” among coalition members as essential ingredients for fostering a unified approach to governance.
Al Jama-ah leader Ganief Hendricks said while the GNU is uncertain about who the next ANC president will be, Mashatile would probably continue Ramaphosa’s legacy of stability and coalition-building.
“We believe the ANC will want to retain him in both positions,” Hendricks said, referring to Ramaphosa’s roles as both party leader and president of the country.
Mashatile is also seen as a candidate capable of uniting the ANC’s various factions and ensuring the GNU’s survival by the party’s smaller partners.
UDM leader Bantu Holomisa highlighted Mashatile’s negotiation skills and extensive political experience as key attributes that make him a “strong contender” for ANC leadership.
Good party secretary general Brett Herron said although it was too early to speculate what would happen after Ramaphosa, he believed that the ANC would continue with the GNU mandate.
“There is considerable support for the GNU within the ANC, though some provincial leaders may have reservations, particularly concerning the perception that the coalition is overly influenced by the DA,” Herron said.
“I wouldn’t give too much credence to this speculation — it’s still early, and the ANC’s elective conference is some time away.”
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema has predicted that the unity government will collapse within the next two years.
He has said that the ANC’s internal dynamics, particularly its upcoming leadership change, will lead to significant political instability in the party.
Malema’s view is that Ramaphosa will be ousted during the ANC’s mid-term national general council, scheduled for next year.
“The ANC will dethrone President Cyril Ramaphosa, and this will force the Democratic Alliance [DA] to opt out of the GNU,” Malema said last month.
He said the DA had only agreed to work with the ANC under Ramaphosa’s leadership, suggesting that any change in leadership would threaten the coalition’s existence.
The question of whether the GNU can survive without Ramaphosa at the helm remains a critical one.
DA federal chairperson Helen Zille has suggested that the GNU’s future hinges on Ramaphosa remaining in power until the next general elections.
With Ramaphosa set to address the party’s mid-term national general council (NGC) in June 2025, speculation is mounting that his internal rivals may use the event to contest the decision to form a coalition with the DA, a party traditionally viewed as ideologically opposed to the ANC.
While the NGC is meant to focus on policy, delegates will also undoubtedly do so with one eye focused on the race for the presidency, which at this stage is likely to be contested by Mashatile and secretary general Fikile Mbalula.
The NGC will also serve as a litmus test for whether the unity government has the support of the ANC’s branches, who Ramaphosa has said have accepted and supported the decision to join forces with the DA.
Internal divisions have already begun to surface, with some prominent ANC members openly criticising the coalition.
Despite Ramaphosa’s reassurances, some critics in the ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP), one of its alliance partners, have continued to express reservations.
SACP general secretary Solly Mapaila has been critical of the decision, calling the ANC’s decision to work with the DA a “betrayal” of the party’s voters.
But Ramaphosa dismissed these criticisms, suggesting that Mapaila’s view is not representative of the broader SACP, especially given that some of its leaders, such as Blade Nzimande and David Masondo, are part of his executive.
Rise Mzansi spokesperson Gugu Ndima said the party will support whoever the ANC elects as its leader as long as they support the GNU.
“Of course, there will always be teething issues, but political maturity is key. It’s vital not to underestimate the impact this decision has on South Africans,” Ndima said.
“However, maintaining their confidence moving forward depends on how politicians within the GNU conduct themselves and reach consensus,” she said.
Freedom Front Plus spokesperson Wouter Wessels said the party would comment on the future of the unity government after the ANC elects its new leader.