South Africa’s new draft integrated resource plan (IRP) puts delaying coal plant shutdowns on the table as an option for securing the country’s future energy supply.
The draft IRP — which sets out the plan for South Africa’s electricity generation mix to 2050 — suggests that after 2030, when six coal-fired plants are currently set to be decommissioned, the country will require a “massive new build programme”.
According to the analysis contained in the IRP, renewable and clean energy technologies are not sufficient to ensure the security of supply, while also carrying the highest cost to implement. The energy plan suggests that this security could come from combinations of renewables, nuclear power, gas and clean coal — as well as through delaying plant shutdowns.
The so-called IRP 2023, which was released on Thursday for public comment following numerous delays, maps out two different intervention periods; one in which more short-term measures can be pursued, between 2023 and 2030, referred to in the document as “Horizon One”. “Horizon Two” encompasses the period between 2031 and 2050 and guides longer-term energy solutions.
The draft IRP does not propose a pathway, instead only considering scenarios for this period. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s cabinet approved the draft plan last month.
Upon announcing cabinet’s decision, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni noted: “Several key assumptions used in the IRP 2019 have significantly changed, including the electricity demand projection, Eskom’s energy availability factor, Eskom’s coal-fired power plants shutdown plan and the cost of new power-generation technologies.”
According to the draft IRP, electricity demand is approximately 19% lower than what was projected in the 2019 version. Based on South Africa’s currently meagre economic growth prospects, the IRP 2023 assumes that demand will remain lower until the mid-2030s, when reforms are expected to unlock more aggressive growth.
The IRP also takes into account the pipeline of private generation, noting that this and other generation initiatives — including capacity from the last two remaining Kusile units, bid window six and commercial and residential rooftop solar — will help reduce the energy shortfall.
However, this is only true if additional solar and wind capacity is installed.
Notably, the plan for Horizon One suggests that only 8083 megawatts of new wind and solar capacity will have come online between 2024 and 2030. The IRP 2019 suggested 15 200MW of wind and solar would be installed during this period.
The draft plan also sets out the installation of far more gas generation capacity that was envisioned in the IRP 2019.
According to the IRP, it is expected that there will be more of this wind and solar dispatchable capacity (sources of electricity that can be programmed according to demand) from the private sector after 2027.
Among its proposed interventions for Horizon One, the IRP states that, where technically and commercially feasible, the shutting down of coal-fired power plants should be delayed in order to retain their dispatchable capacity.
The draft IRP concludes by noting that the generation pathways and options put forward “indicate that firm decisions based on system requirements are crucial”, adding that they will be met with “policy tensions”.
“The final policy decisions must be taken on the basis of a long term decarbonisation trajectory while improving South Africa’s competitiveness, growing the economy through an industrial renaissance as outlined in the NDP [national development plan].”
The draft IRP 2023 is out for public comment until 23 February 2024.